The sky is falling.
The theaters are dying. Cable is dying. Broadcast is dying.
Streaming is the way of the future!
However, of course, streaming is dying too. Some of the services are losing billions of dollars a year. They're not all going to survive.
It seems like the entire entertainment industry is circling the bowl before disappearing into the stinky void.
Here's my take: It's all true, but the wounds are all self-inflicted.
I recently read an article about the money pit streamer Paramount+. It said that a full 25% of the subscribers have ONLY watched Taylor Sheridan shows like Yellowstone, 1888, 1923 and Tulsa King. Yellowstone averages 7-to-8-million viewers per episode on a struggling subscription platform. If Taylor Sheridan's shows were all available on free broadcast networks, I suspect they would have more viewers and much broader cultural impact. And nobody would be talking about the death of the broadcast networks.
I contend that all of the major "content creators" send their most promising shows to their exclusive streaming platforms in a desperate hunt for subscribers in the hope of returning their outsized investments. Here's an example: Disney moving its hit broadcast series Dancing With The Stars from ABC to Disney+. It's a perfect case of them deliberately weakening one division of the company, ABC, to prop up the streaming service. As a result of these practices, they starve the pre-existing networks -- both broadcast and cable -- of the highest quality product. The MBAs running the show now say the Internet has changed the viewing habits of people. True. We don't have a three network monopoly anymore. However, one thing remains true: If you give people what they want, they show up every time. That's an axiom as old as the movie business, and it remains as true in 2023 as it was in 1923. When you hide away your best product behind a pay wall, the old platforms will suffer. This is a strategy I believe will result in billions of dollars of loses instead of billions of dollars of profits.
Keeping with the Paramount+ example, I heard great things about The Offer and Yellowstone. However, I wasn't going to buy a subscription to a streaming service for only two shows. I would check in periodically to see what additional content was available on the streamer. After about three years, I felt the service had enough content to warrant a subscription. I don't know how long I will stay with them once I've seen everything that interests me. This business model, especially in these harsh economic times, is forcing me to become a dreaded "dipper" -- someone who signs up for a month or two and then drops the service. What choice do I have? I subscribe to cable, Netflix, HBOMax, Prime, Disney+, Paramount+ and Hulu. That's expensive. You can't expect me to keep them all.
I can't believe this model is more profitable than a traditional broadcast television release. Think about it. A studio makes a show in partnership with a network, spreading out the financial risk. If a show proved successful, it would be a profit center for the network immediately. Then, after a long run, it would enter broadcast and cable syndication. Then it would be released in home formats. Then, the show could be sent to a streaming service. That's a lot of cash registers ringing. And a lot of residuals being paid to the creatives.
Over the course of its run, the traditionally released show would have been seen by millions and millions more people than if it had played exclusively on a streaming service. Since more people would have had access to it, the show would have developed greater cultural affection and significance. As IP, its value would increase dramatically. Streaming hasn't had its Friends, Seinfeld, NCIS, Gray's Anatomy, Everybody Loves Raymond or The Simpsons yet. Nor will it ever. When you are willing to trap yourself in a small box in this already highly fragmented market, you sacrifice the reach and power of the successful traditionally released programs.
Even NetFlix, a creature born entirely of the Internet, is beginning to see how a theatrical release can increase the value of its intellectual property.
Additionally, the new streaming model is terrible for the actors, writers and directors that make the films and shows. Most streaming shows pay no residuals, which creatives need to survive between projects. Also, the seasons of most streaming series are only ten episodes. That short schedule doesn't give the creatives the same financial security that a traditional television show does. The show runners are getting amazingly rich deals from the streamers but all the other creatives suffer, which endangers the health of the entire industry.
Funny how the solutions to problems in the entertainment industry always call for paying the creatives less....
Yes, broadcast is dying and cable is dying. But I believe the wounds are completely self-inflicted.
I'll be back with my two cents on other aspects of the business later.
Other blogs about the film business:
The Downward Media Spiral, Part 1WGAW Foreign Levies Program
My novel Chapel Street is now available! You can buy the Kindle and paperback at Amazon and the Nook, paperback and hardcover at Barnes & Noble. Chapel Street is the tale of a young man battling a demonic entity that has driven members of his family to suicide for generations. It was inspired by an actual haunting.
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 2, The House
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 3, This Is Us
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 4, Arrival
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 5, Methodology
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 6, Clara's Tale, Pt. 1
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 7, Clara's Tale, Pt. 2
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 8, My Tale, Pt. 1
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 9, My Tale, Pt. 2
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 10, My Tale, Pt. 3
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 11, Natalia's Tale, Pt. 1
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 12, Natalia's Tale, Pt. 2
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 13, John's Tale, Pt. 1
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 14, John's Tale, Pt. 2
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 15, Come Inside!
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 16, Marion's Tale, Pt. 1
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 17, Marion's Tale, Pt. 2
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 18, Jeanne's Tale, Pt. 1
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 19, Jeanne's Tale, Pt. 2
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 20, Lisa's Tale
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 21, Recap, Pt. 1
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 22, Recap, Pt. 2
The Haunting of 21 St. Helens Avenue, Part 23, Recap, Pt. 3
Great article Sean, I think you hit the nail on the head!
ReplyDeleteThanks!
DeleteA friend pointed out to me that Amazon Prime Video is a loss leader for their bigger business of overcharging us for Chinese imports and underpaying delivery and warehouse employees.
ReplyDeleteFor Disney+ it makes sense since they have tie ins to properties like Marvel and Star Wars alongside the whole Disney brand as well. And as you pointed out, it's cheaper for them to produce a streaming show that cashes in on the real money-maker, merchandising.
But for Netflix and Paramount+ and Max, I think they are digging a hole for themselves that will create a society of dippers which will force them to increase rates until it becomes a pay-per-view model. We won't be buying a monthly subscription to unlimited shows, but rather 99 cents for that episode, $4.99 for this movie, etc. Or perhaps we'll see an Audible model, where you get certain number of credits a month to view what you want.
Either way, the days of network television, I fear, are over. Other than a sporting event, or coverage of a live news story, I can't remember the last time I sat down in front of the TV at 9:0pm on a certain night to catch the latest episode. It's easier to DVR the show, or better, binge it on whatever streaming service I'm dipping into that month.
As a former writer for network and cable television, those residuals did make a big difference in my life. And still by me a nice dinner out from time to time (though I did get a check from Disney for $0.01) But if I had a chance to write for a streaming show, I'd jump at it in a heartbeat. So, the executives have me right where they want me.
I hope the days of network television are not over. Granted, I had not watched it for a really long time -- except sports, news and Survivor. However, I had it on a few nights ago and it wasn't bad. A few sitcoms, then a procedural. Solid, if unspectacular entertainment. And it was free! Fortunately, I still get some residual checks. Most of my movies were exclusively on one streaming service and the amount of the checks really dropped down. Now that they are no longer exclusive, they are picking up again. Streaming is not helping creatives.
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